The more an event is talked about, the more probable we think it is. The more vivid our thoughts about the event are — again, think television — the more easily we remember it and the more convincing it is. So when faced with a very available and highly vivid event like the Underwear Bomber, 9/11, or a child kidnapping in a playground, we overreact. We get scared. And once we’re scared, we need to “do something” — even if that something doesn’t make sense and is ineffective. We need to do something directly related to the story that’s making us scared. We implement full body scanners at airports. We pass the Patriot Act. We don’t let our children go to playgrounds unsupervised. Instead of implementing effective, but more general, security measures to reduce the overall risk, we concentrate on making the fearful story go away. Yes, it’s security theater, but it makes us feel safer. As circular as it sounds, rare events are rare primarily because they don’t occur very often, and not because of any preventive security measures. If you want to do something that makes security sense, figure out what’s common among a bunch of rare events, and concentrate your countermeasures there. Focus on the general risk of terrorism, and not the specific threat of airplane bombings using PETN-filled underwear. Focus on the general risk of troubled teens, and not the specific threat of a lone gunman wandering around a school. Ignore the movie-plot threats, and concentrate on the real risks.

People ask me all the time how they can get more readers to their blog. The answer is that you have to be learning on your blog. If you’re not learning, no one else is learning. You can’t fake it. It’s safe to talk about what you know, but it’s not that interesting; no one likes a know-it-all. My favorite posts are the one’s when I was doing something scary, but doing it with grace. In fact, I actually think those are my favorite times of life.